As portfolio manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, David Tice has made a name for himself with bearish calls. Forbes gives his $165 million fund an A+ in down markets and an F in up markets. But Tice does more than short stocks, for even now 14% of his stock portfolio consists of long positions. What stocks is this bear buying now?

Gold and silver shares—because they tend to be countercyclical. Tice says the U.S. economy’s slowdown means trouble for the dollar and that’s good for dollar hedges like gold. He owns Harmony Gold (nasdaq: HGMCY – news – people ), a South African firm with sales of $491 million in its latest fiscal year. Tice describes Harmony as a well-managed and efficient integrator of acquisitions and notes that the stock trades at just nine times trailing profits. It yields 3%.

More speculative is Tice’s holding in Avigen, an Alameda, Calif.-based developer of gene-therapy products. He likes the science, not the bottom line—the company’s deep in the red. The attraction is Avigen’s “AAV Vector” gene therapy; this technology allows a modified virus to carry a therapeutic gene into a target cell and could cure hereditary emphysema and other diseases.

Henry Van der Eb is another chronic bear who is finally having his day. He is the manager of the Gabelli Mathers fund, which blends a large fixed-income portfolio with long and short equity positions. This earned his fund a Forbes grade of A in down markets and F in up ones. Last year the fund made 5%, putting it 14 points ahead of the S&P 500. He’s still bearish, figuring the market’s price/earnings multiple should fall from a recent 21 to 16. But for the moment he has closed out his short positions and has found a few stocks to like. Example: OfficeMax.

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – The significance of accounts receivable–money owed a company for merchandise or services provided on account–can be hard to pin down. For example, if accounts receivable show a decline over a given period, it could suggest a company isn’t bringing in enough new business.

But increases in accounts receivable can also indicate a problem; the general presumption is that the older a receivable gets, the less likely it is to get paid off.

How can investors interpret accounts receivable information? “If sales are improving while receivables are going down, that’s a sign that either the company’s customers are paying faster or it’s experiencing fewer collection problems,” says Douglas Carmichael, professor of accounting at the City University of New York’s Baruch College.

Carmichael suggests looking at the difference between the percentage decline in receivables and percentage gain in sales, as well as how the two figures stack up in relation to competitors.

Example: Adolph Coors (nyse: RKY – news – people), a Golden, Colo.-based brewer. In early February, the company reported that sales for the quarter ended in December 2000 had increased 7% versus the same quarter a year earlier. Meanwhile, receivables fell 16% during that time.

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – From July to October 2000, the euro slid 14% against the dollar, falling from 96 cents to an all-time low of 83 cents. The impact on companies with significant exports to Europe wasn’t pretty.

Take C.R. Bard (nyse: BCR – news – people), a manufacturer of medical supplies. In December 2000, the company complained that “dramatic declines in foreign currencies” had shaved $22 million from its fiscal 2000 sales. After the U.S., Europe is the company’s largest market, accounting for 17% of revenue.

So far, 2001 hasn’t proven much kinder to the euro. Against the dollar, the euro has fallen from a January high of 95 cents, to 89 cents. Actions by the European Central Bank haven’t helped. On April 11, the ECB, citing the continuing need to keep inflation in check, announced that key ECB interest rates would remain unchanged. The euro dropped 0.6% on the news.

Despite all this bad news for the euro, some experts think the currency is set to rebound. “In the short run, until the ECB clarifies exactly what it’s doing, the euro will be under pressure,” says Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at CIBC World Markets, “But I still believe the best location for the euro is around par to the dollar.”

Kumar predicts eurozone economies will expand between 2.5% and 3% this year. With that kind of growth–and eventual rate cuts by the ECB–he thinks the euro will approach parity with the dollar by the end of the year.

That scenario would benefit the companies in the medical devices sector, says Sandy Hollenhorst, senior medical technology analyst at Prudential Securities. Hollenhorst thinks a strengthening euro would add to the revenue of a company like C.R. Bard.

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – Insurer American General is in play with American International Group, recently outbidding Britain’s Prudential with a $23 billion offer for the company. On April 10, Prudential fired back by announcing an action against AIG for interfering with its plans.

Despite the litigation, analysts say the pace of insurance industry consolidation should increase from here.

“Insurance companies need to develop their brands as consumer financial services organizations,” explains Vanessa Wilson, analyst at Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown, “but many just don’t have the scale to finance the technology spending and advertising necessary to do that.”

One takeover candidate: Jefferson-Pilot (nyse: JP – news – people), a Greensboro, N.C.-based provider of insurance and annuities with $26 billion under management. Andrew Kligerman, analyst at Bear, Stearns, sees Jefferson being acquired by a bank, as opposed to another insurer. “Their management team believes in the bank assurance model, where banks are active in the sale of insurance products,” says Kligerman.

Enterprise value–a company’s market value plus total debt and the liquidation value of preferred stocks minus cash and equivalents–provides a snapshot of the minimum price for acquiring a company. Jefferson Pilot’s enterprise value stands at $8.1 billion.

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – The United Kingdom’s economy has its own share of problems, but in a world with numerous troubled economies, the U.K. is a relative bright spot. In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund gave a positive view of the U.K. economic outlook, citing robust future growth and benign prospects for inflation.

U.K. government forecasters expect Britain’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product will grow 2.6% this year versus a 2.4% increase expected for the U.S. by Forbes/Bridge Economists.

British stocks haven’t been immune to the worldwide decline in equity prices. The bellwether FT-100 index is down 15% so far this year, in line with the decline in the Morgan Stanley Capital International World index.

“I don’t think the British will have quite the downturn that we’ll have here, because they didn’t have the excesses,” says William V. Fries, lead manager of the Thornburg Value Fund (TVAFX) .

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – “Certain companies strive to have a lot of cash because they want a cushion, particularly in a downturn,” says April Klein, associate professor of accounting at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

For some companies, that cushion may also mean a competitive advantage. Take, for example, Technitrol (nyse: TNL – news – people), a Philadelphia-based manufacturer of electronic components for use in networking and Internet applications. As of its latest reported quarter, the company held $163 million in cash and equivalents, 50% of its shareholders’ equity.

All that cash could serve Technitrol well, according to David D. Weaver, analyst at Legg Mason Wood Walker. “The company has said it’s looking for acquisitions,” Weaver notes, “so it’s nice they have that firepower available, without having to go to the debt or equity markets.”

Full story at Forbes.com

NEW YORK – Shares of Genesco, a Tennessee-based footwear and accessories retailing concern, have more than doubled from last May’s 52-week low. But the stock is down 8% since peaking in mid-February. Where is this stock headed?

According to theories of market sentiment, the upward trend will probably continue. Commenting generally, Bernie Schaeffer, chief executive of Schaeffer’s Investment Research, explains. “If you have a stock that’s in clear bull-market mode,” he says, “and you see strong indications of negative or bearish sentiment, that tells you the uptrend has a good chance of continuing.” Schaeffer adds that “such a pattern shows there’s still skepticism and money on the sidelines.”

Schaeffer and his colleagues specialize in market sentiment indicators–measurements of investors’ bullish or bearish mood. One popular indicator is short interest, or the percentage of a company’s outstanding shares sold on the expectation that they can be repurchased at a lower price. Another is the put/call ratio, which compares the volume of put options to call options. A rising put/call ratio (sells/buys) generally indicates increasing skepticism about a particular stock.

Full story at Forbes.com