Writing

Buy Like Buffett

Here’s an investing mind-set to adopt: think like a corporate acquirer. In other words, even if you’re only picking up a few shares, pretend you’re buying the entire company. Such discipline forces you to contemplate important fundamental and conceptual items before pulling the trigger on a trade.

One pro to emulate with this type of investment strategy is Warren E. Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. In the company’s 2004 annual report, Buffett lists his acquisition criteria–among them, $75 million or more in pretax profits, consistent earnings power, good return on equity with a light debt load, management in place and “simple” (not too technological) businesses.

Full story at Forbes.com

Smartcard Small Cap

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The notion that small-caps are riskier than large-caps flows from common sense. Small companies usually have fewer customers and lines of business. Their stocks aren’t as widely held, thus intensifying the effects if a big shareholder pulls the plug.

But what if one of your customers is the recession-resistant mother of all spenders? The one that can print money? Fargo Electronics is strong in a niche business that the U.S. federal government demands: printers that personalize identification cards with text and images.

“The federal government isn’t generally a big risk taker, so they’re looking for products that are tried and true,” explains Kathleen Phillips, Fargo’s vice president for sales and marketing. “We have those products.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Love It or Leave It

Since the early 1980s we’ve marked the end of the calendar year by asking each of a group of investment pros to name the one stock they think most likely to either outpace or trail the market over the coming 12 months. Our panel of seers now numbers 17, with 12 bulls, 5 bears.

Both sets performed admirably in the year gone by. Long bets from the Love Only One class of 2005 rose an average 16% over the course of the contest versus 7% for the S&P 500. The shorts ended a three-year streak of poor showings. Their picks declined 25% on average. In all, 12 of our 17 contestants earned our customary reward for beating the market, an invitation to return for 2006. Eleven have accepted.

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Ballmer’s Beltway Pitch

Washington, D.C. – The word “military” doesn’t appear in Microsoft’s most recent annual report. Nor does the company’s name figure into tallies of the largest civilian or military contractors to the United States government. Still, in comments to Washington D.C. tech executives yesterday, Chief Executive Steve Ballmer put such work at the core of Microsoft’s mission.

“The kind of high-technology work going on in the defense business and defense contracting, the use of those technologies by the military,” he said, “are sure shapers of our strategy.”

Ballmer gave his remarks at the Capital Hilton–just down the street from the White House–to an audience brought together by the D.C. Tech Council, the Tech Council of Maryland TechNet and the Northern Virginia Technology Council. The latter group counts 1,000 members, including D.C.-area contractors Anteon International, CACI International and SI International.

An energetic speaker, Ballmer knows how to work a crowd. He took the stage as though he’d just downed a few cups of coffee from the refreshment stand outside the ballroom.

Full story at Forbes.com

Thinking Outside The Style Box

One investing tenet says you should choose an investing style–value, growth and so on–and stay as faithful as possible to it. Marc Heilweil has had success taking a more flexible approach. Since its launch in 2000, his relatively small ($20 million in assets) fund, Marathon Value Portfolio, has averaged an annual 9% total return, versus 2% for the S&P 500.

“Our fund is hard to categorize,” says Heilweil, 59. “I will go where the best values are, whether it’s small-cap, large-cap, value, growth, international or domestic.” His top ten holdings illustrate the point; alongside value plays like Kimberly-Clark, you’ll find jazzier outfits like Maxim Integrated Products, a developer and manufacturer of analog semiconductors.

Still, Heilweil, a Yale Law School graduate and 28-year veteran of the investment business, keeps a few stock-picking ground rules. First, he’s a believer in Benjamin Graham’s concept of “margin of safety,” which suggests that you can cover your tail in the market by buying companies whose enterprise value (market capitalization less net debt) stands below their “intrinsic” value.

Full story at Forbes.com

The Best Analysts: 2006 Outlook

Last spring, we published our second annual rankings of Wall Street’s best brokerage analysts. Using data from our partners at StarMine, we named the ten analysts with the best track records in the prior calendar year in each of two areas: accuracy in earnings forecasts and quality of buy, hold and sell recommendations.

As part of our year-end Investment Guide, we checked in with a few honorees in both categories to get their big-picture thinking for 2006 and the stocks they deem attractive now. The ten individuals listed in the accompanying table hail from a diverse group of employers, ranging from financial powerhouses, like Citigroup and Bank of America, to smaller outfits, such as Ferris, Baker Watts.

Overall, the mood is bullish, although there are certainly pockets of caution. Matthew Snowling of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, for example, says he’s wary of the prospects of big money managers in his investment-services coverage area, preferring instead online brokers, like E*Trade Financial. Ivy Zelman, who tracks home builders and makers of household durables for Credit Suisse First Boston, thinks a diversified company like Fortune Brands will be a best bet in a tough housing market.

Full story at Forbes.com

Tech’s Christmas Wish

Washington, D.C. – Way back in July, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff announced the creation of a new underling: assistant secretary for Cyber and Telecommunications Security. Tech industry reps are now eagerly awaiting the (supposedly imminent) appointment of a living, breathing person to fill that crucial job.

“Whether that person’s name is about to pop or whether the champagne is going to be kept on ice for a few more weeks, I don’t know,” says Harris Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America, an organization representing the likes of Accenture, IBM, Electronic Data Systems and Symantec among others.

Full story at Forbes.com

Investing Green Without Seeing Red

Washington, D.C. – Fifteen years ago, Jeffrey Leonard and a partner pulled together $5 million to found a private equity outfit, the Global Environment Fund, devoted to making money off environmentally friendly technologies. “We thought we were going to invest in replacing the internal combustion engine or the incandescent lightbulb,” Leonard says.

At an investment conference here last month, Leonard showed just how far his thinking has evolved since 1990. To an audience of venture capitalists, company executives and government officials, the Global Environment Fund chief rattled off a few of his favorite deal-making areas: liquefied natural gas, clean diesel, nuclear power and clean coal. Hardly stuff to enthuse the average enviro.

Leonard says his remarks came with a measure of tongue-in-cheek but also a serious message on making venture bets in the “clean technology” category. “In this climate,” he warns, “you want to be damn careful about what kind of technology you’re going to invest in.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Don’t Tread On Us

Washington, D.C. – Since its enactment in August, the $287 billion U.S. transportation-spending law has been a target. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita prompted calls for partial repeal of some of the spending, namely the 6,000 projects, or earmarks, that lawmakers set aside for their constituents. High gas prices have led some to suggest suspending or eliminating the wellspring of transportation funding: the federal gas tax. And now House conservatives are sharpening their budget-cutting knives.

But none of that will stop the powerful highway lobby.

Instead, officials from the American Road & Transportation Builders Association are watching their rear as they move on to their next big project: reauthorization of the highway bill in 2009. “Those are two sides of the same coin,” says David Bauer, ARTBA’s senior vice president for government relations.

Full Story at Forbes.com

Using Return On Equity For Stock Bets

WASHINGTON, D.C. – What kind of bang does management deliver for the buck? One way for stock buyers to answer that question is to look at return on equity, or net income divided by shareholder’s equity. The number, expressed as a percentage, can indicate how well management delivers profit given the capital entrusted to them.

Return on equity has its flaws, namely that it sometimes gets a misleading boost from accounting matters rather than management prowess. For example, one-time events, such as the sale of assets, can puff up the net income in ROE’s numerator. Likewise, negative earnings, changes in accounting principles, share buybacks or restructuring charges may distort a company’s net worth.

Full story at Forbes.com