Where’s the Cash?

You can’t trust earnings anymore. So what should you look for? Dividends. They are harder to fake. We went hunting for stocks with solid cash dividends but didn’t do the obvious thing: Rank all stocks by yield and select the highest. If you simply want the highest yields, go for real estate investment trusts (see p. 126). Or take a chance on tobacco. On page 140 David Dreman makes the case for Philip Morris, which yields 4.7%.

The list below features dividend stars of a different sort. Their yields are only so-so, averaging 2% or so, but their dividends are well covered and rising. The percentage of earnings being paid out is small. Only a deep and prolonged earnings contraction would force these outfits to shrink their payouts. These companies have been raising dividends recently (three-year growth of 3% or better). They also all have good balance sheets: debt less than 50% of total capital and interest coverage (earnings before interest and taxes, divided by interest) greater than 1.5.

Headquartered in Menasha, Wis., Banta Corp. prints everything from Bibles to software manuals. Banta earned $50 million last year on revenue of $1.5 billion and distributed $15 million of that to shareholders. Banta’s free cash flow, in the sense of net income plus depreciation minus capital expenditures, has been positive for the past ten years.Michael Friedman, equity analyst with New York brokerage Sidoti & Co., notes that the company has recently trimmed capital expenditures in light of the economy’s downturn. Shareholder payouts first, expansion second.

Contrast Banta with a stock such as Bristol-Myers Squibb, which now yields a robust 4.8%. Using the consensus mean estimate for 2003 EPS, Bristol-Myers shows a payout of 69%. Switch to the most pessimistic profit projection for next year, and the expected payout climbs to 78%–not exactly reassuring.

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Good Deals At Local Banks

Falling interest rates and investor flight from the stock market have, so far, worked to the advantage of regional banks and thrifts. Take GreenPoint Financial, whose GreenPoint Bank has offices throughout metropolitan New York. In the past two years, the thrift has seen its net profit margin widen to 24% from 16%, and its stock price nearly doubled.

With such runups, has the sector gotten too richly priced? Not according to bulls, who argue that although investors might be eager for a stock market rebound, it’s unlikely they’ll pile their assets into equities with abandon anytime soon. On the other hand, deposit accounts are likely to remain attractive. The same goes for real estate–provided home values don’t collapse.

“I think we’re going to see stronger-than-anticipated overall loan growth for the next two to three quarters,” says Thomas Monaco, who covers savings banks for Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, a New York-based brokerage and investment banking concern.

Low short-term interest rates are also a boon for thrifts. Savings banks thrive on the spread between what they pay on deposits versus what they earn when they lend money at higher rates.

Full story at Forbes.com

Healthy-Looking Issues

In this turbulent market, investors seem to have even lost their appetite for stocks in traditionally defensive areas such as drugs, managed care and medical devices. Health stocks in the S&P 500–while faring better than the overall index–are still down 18% for the year.

“None of these sectors is emotion-proof,” says William Meade, managing director and institutional sales specialist with RBC Capital Markets, an investment bank headquartered in Toronto.

This dip may well be an opportunity. Valuations for many health care and medical companies are low relative to history–and 79 million baby boomers aren’t getting any younger. By 2011, estimates the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, health care expenditures in this country will hit $2.8 trillion, or 17% of gross domestic product.

Health stocks also come with certain risks, namely from Washington. These include the possibility of declining reimbursement levels, the push to control drug prices and the unpredictability of actions by the Food and Drug Administration. But RBC’s Meade isn’t too worried about the government: “This administration is much more company-friendly because they realize that costs do have to go up.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Steel Wheels

A transportation analyst with J.P. Morgan Chase, Jill Evans follows weekly railcar loadings. Lately, she likes what she sees. “Metal shipments were up by double digits in the past three weeks,” she says, “That hasn’t happened in years.”

Evans suggests this uptick in activity bodes well for railroads, as increased shipments will dovetail nicely with the railroads’ efforts to improve pricing. The rails will also benefit, says Evans, from the productivity gains resulting from the heavy merger activity of the late ’90s.

Better still, costs related to those mergers, such as spending on new terminals and connecting lines, have eased off. “The huge swing from negative to positive cash flow is coming back to the shareholders in the form of debt reduction and share buyback programs,” Evans explains.

Signs of an economic rebound have kept investors interested in rail companies since last summer. Over the past 12 months, railroad stocks in the S&P 500 have gained 2%, versus a drop of 25% for the overall index.

Full story at Forbes.com

Bulls On The Inside

Wall Street has taken BellSouth’s stock to the shed lately. Since topping out at $43 in September, shares of the Atlanta-headquartered Baby Bell have lost nearly half their value.

Insider activity, however, tells a less grim tale. Over the past six months, insiders have scooped up 10,000 BellSouth shares. Amount of insider selling: none.

That’s a drop in the bucket–BellSouth has nearly 1.9 billion shares outstanding–but it’s an encouraging sign. Contrast that to another Baby Bell, SBC Communications, where insiders have also bought 10,000 shares but dumped 211,000 during the same period.

Of course, the motives for insider selling aren’t always ominous–an insider may be financing a kid’s college education or building a new house. Still, a predominance of insider buying is at the very least reassuring, if not a positive reflection of the company’s outlook.

Moreover, net insider buying often signals an undervalued stock. BellSouth, for example, goes for 1.8 times latest 12-month sales versus a five-year average price-to-sales (PSR) multiple of 3.3. And BellSouth shares sell for just ten times projected 2003 earnings.

Full story at Forbes.com

Wish Upon a Star

Oakmark Funds, a chicago-based unit of Harris Associates that oversees $15 billion in assets, calls value investing its cornerstone. With the Nasdaq down 70% from its March 2000 high, the technology sector has drawn Oakmark’s attention. On its shopping list: Israeli stocks carried on U.S. exchanges.

Why look for a stock pick from a place like the Middle East? Robert Taylor, an investment analyst with Oakmark’s $1.5 billion (assets) International Fund, points to as good a reason as any: low taxes. Under Israel’s “approved enterprise” program, Israeli firms spending certain amounts of money locally on research and capital expenditures get their tax bill chopped by up to two-thirds.

Its favorable tax environment helps explain why Israel, a country with a population of just 6.4 million, attracted more venture funding ($3.3 billion) last year than Italy ($2.7 billion), Korea ($1.6 billion)and Taiwan ($1.1 billion), according to PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The tax rate of Check Point Software Technologies, a maker of encryption software for computer networks, is just one example. In its latest fiscal year, ended last December, Check Point’s effective tax rate was 15.6%, up slightly from 14.4% in 2000, but still well under the standard Israeli tax rate of 36%.

Christopher D. Alderson, head of emerging-market equities with T. Rowe Price, likes Check Point’s 95% gross margins and $500 million in cash and equivalents. “That’s pretty extraordinary for a company that’s only been going seven years,” he says.

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Buy Them While Their Returns Are Weak

One investing rule of thumb says to look for companies with high returns on equity. The approach is perfectly logical.

Return on equity (ROE), calculated by dividing net income by shareholder equity during a particular period, measures the return that management has produced on the money invested into the business. It makes sense that investors, i.e. shareholders, would seek out companies with healthy double-digit returns on equity.

So, why would anyone consider a company with low ROE? For starters, companies with low ROE may get overlooked or beaten down more than warranted because of their lackluster returns. And, sometimes, a slump in profitability may not be representative of long-term potential.

Take, for example, Andrew Corporation, a maker of cables, antennas, power amplifiers and other equipment for wireless and fixed-line communications. On a latest 12-month basis, return on equity for the Orland, Park, Ill.-based company stands at 9%, down from a three-year average of 11% and a five-year average of 15%.

Given the ongoing drought in capital spending and the ugly overall situation in telecommunications, it’s not difficult to understand why Andrew’s profits have suffered. The market, however, may have treated the stock a bit too harshly. At a recent $13, Andrew shares have fallen 47% since hitting a 52-week high in January.

If investors warm again to wireless stocks, Andrew looks poised to benefit. The company has taken advantage of its healthy balance sheet to make acquisitions and shore up its market position. In early June, the company completed its $470 million acquisition of Celiant, thereby becoming the leading U.S. maker of wireless-signal amplifiers.

To assemble our list of companies with low ROEs but promising prospects, we screened for companies with the following characteristics: ROE in the single digits and below their three-year and five-year averages; latest 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 30 or less; and market capitalization greater than $500 million.

Full story at Forbes.com

Nasdaq Bargain Hunting

Despite a 31% drop since the beginning of the year, it still may be premature to call a bottom for the Nasdaq Composite. The index managed to lose 5% last week and was off another 3.4% through midday on Monday. But, whatever the market’s immediate direction, some Nasdaq stocks look pretty attractive.

We screened for Nasdaq-listed stocks that have held up well relative to the overall index but still look cheap relative to their estimated earnings growth potential.

Example: Clearwater, Fla.-based Lincare Holdings (nasdaq: LNCR – news – people ), the country’s No. 2 provider of home respiratory services. The company delivers oxygen supplies to home-based patients suffering from such ailments as emphysema, chronic bronchitis and asthma.

Lincare, which has nearly 600 operating centers in 44 states, has been steadily increasing its share of the fragmented $4.5 billion home respiratory market through acquisitions and internal growth. In 2001, for example, the company acquired 18 smaller outfits, thus adding 15 operating centers to its roster.

Analysts reporting to Thomson Financial/IBES expect more such growth ahead for Lincare, forecasting that the company’s revenue will increase to $958 million in 2002 and to $1.1 billion in 2003, from $812 million for its latest fiscal year (ended December).

As for earnings, analysts predict Lincare’s profits will show annualized increases of 21% over the next three to five years. This means the stock, trading at just 17 times estimated next 12-month earnings of $1.76 per share, has a 12-month forward price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8.

An investing rule of thumb says that stocks with PEGs less than 1 are undervalued. To assemble our table of Nasdaq picks, we started with stocks that carry low PEGs. For the group, 12-month forward price-to-earnings multiples average 17, while 2003 estimated P/Es average out at 14.

Full story at Forbes.com

Betting On Your Phone’s Innards

Bets on chip stocks are never easy to place. Like producers of any commodity, semiconductor companies face a volatile and high-pressure pricing environment. Complicating matters, a chip firm’s market position can be easily threatened by upstart competitors with better technology.

The flip side to this is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at 467–down 11% since the end of 2001–and a long way from its two-year high of 1281. So now might be the time to think about taking a chip shot or two. As for where to look for candidates, consider microchip companies with significant exposure to the cellular phone market.

Why chips for phones? In a word: demand. Next generation wireless services, known as 2.5G and 3G, are either already in place in the U.S. or set to roll out in the next year or two. For better or worse, the handsets for these services will let users perform more complicated tasks, such as transmitting video and Web browsing. Accordingly, they will require more memory and more chips to provide the computing power.

“The growth in 2.5G and 3G cell phone business will be a driver for many chip companies,” says Manoj Nadkarni, founder and principal analyst for Chipinvestor.com, an online newsletter devoted to the semiconductor business. As with all investing in microchip stocks, Nadkarni advises investors to stay mindful of each company’s specific expertise, as well as its market share within that particular segment.

Texas Instruments’ expertise is in digital signal processors (DSP). These microprocessors allow people to have conversations over digital networks by converting analog signals, like the human voice, to digital ones and vice versa.

According to Forward Concepts, a Tempe, Ariz.-based market research firm, Texas Instruments held 43.5% of the DSP market in 2001. That share slipped somewhat from 2000, yet still handily outdistanced Lucent Technologies’ former subsidiary Agere Systems, the nearest competitor, which had 16% of the market last year.

Judging by its copious research and development spending, Texas Instruments seems determined to hang onto its share of the DSP business. Last year, the company shelled out $1.6 billion for research and development, down from 2000 but well above 1999 levels.

Full story at Forbes.com

Some Companies Get Paid On Time

NEW YORK – Found just under the “cash and equivalents” line on the balance sheet, accounts receivable refers to money owed a business for goods or services already provided. It’s useful to consider this item in the context of sales performance. In other words, if sales are rising while receivables are falling, it’s a pretty good sign that customers are either paying faster or the company is having fewer collection problems.

Example: Fluor, a contracting and engineering firm based in Aliso Viejo, Calif. The company’s swelling backlog of new projects has hit $11.6 billion as of its March quarter, a 14% increase from levels a year earlier. Recent engagements range from building a 365-room Ritz-Carlton resort in the Grand Cayman Islands to constructing test facilities for the Army Corps of Engineers’ missile defense research.

Fluor’s balance sheet suggests that customers are also paying their bills. For the most recent quarter (ended in March), receivables stood at $564 million, down 25% from $748 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, sales rose 31%, to $2.5 billion, during the same period.

Fluor looks like a company that will benefit from a recovering economy, but the stock hasn’t attracted quite the same attention that investors have paid to cyclical sectors such as natural resources or media. Shares of Fluor are trading 38% off a 52-week high set a year ago, and the stock’s 2003 estimated P/E of 14 falls well below the S&P 500’s estimated multiple of 21.

Full story at Forbes.com