Buy Like Buffett

Here’s an investing mind-set to adopt: think like a corporate acquirer. In other words, even if you’re only picking up a few shares, pretend you’re buying the entire company. Such discipline forces you to contemplate important fundamental and conceptual items before pulling the trigger on a trade.

One pro to emulate with this type of investment strategy is Warren E. Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. In the company’s 2004 annual report, Buffett lists his acquisition criteria–among them, $75 million or more in pretax profits, consistent earnings power, good return on equity with a light debt load, management in place and “simple” (not too technological) businesses.

Full story at Forbes.com

Smartcard Small Cap

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The notion that small-caps are riskier than large-caps flows from common sense. Small companies usually have fewer customers and lines of business. Their stocks aren’t as widely held, thus intensifying the effects if a big shareholder pulls the plug.

But what if one of your customers is the recession-resistant mother of all spenders? The one that can print money? Fargo Electronics is strong in a niche business that the U.S. federal government demands: printers that personalize identification cards with text and images.

“The federal government isn’t generally a big risk taker, so they’re looking for products that are tried and true,” explains Kathleen Phillips, Fargo’s vice president for sales and marketing. “We have those products.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Love It or Leave It

Since the early 1980s we’ve marked the end of the calendar year by asking each of a group of investment pros to name the one stock they think most likely to either outpace or trail the market over the coming 12 months. Our panel of seers now numbers 17, with 12 bulls, 5 bears.

Both sets performed admirably in the year gone by. Long bets from the Love Only One class of 2005 rose an average 16% over the course of the contest versus 7% for the S&P 500. The shorts ended a three-year streak of poor showings. Their picks declined 25% on average. In all, 12 of our 17 contestants earned our customary reward for beating the market, an invitation to return for 2006. Eleven have accepted.

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Thinking Outside The Style Box

One investing tenet says you should choose an investing style–value, growth and so on–and stay as faithful as possible to it. Marc Heilweil has had success taking a more flexible approach. Since its launch in 2000, his relatively small ($20 million in assets) fund, Marathon Value Portfolio, has averaged an annual 9% total return, versus 2% for the S&P 500.

“Our fund is hard to categorize,” says Heilweil, 59. “I will go where the best values are, whether it’s small-cap, large-cap, value, growth, international or domestic.” His top ten holdings illustrate the point; alongside value plays like Kimberly-Clark, you’ll find jazzier outfits like Maxim Integrated Products, a developer and manufacturer of analog semiconductors.

Still, Heilweil, a Yale Law School graduate and 28-year veteran of the investment business, keeps a few stock-picking ground rules. First, he’s a believer in Benjamin Graham’s concept of “margin of safety,” which suggests that you can cover your tail in the market by buying companies whose enterprise value (market capitalization less net debt) stands below their “intrinsic” value.

Full story at Forbes.com

The Best Analysts: 2006 Outlook

Last spring, we published our second annual rankings of Wall Street’s best brokerage analysts. Using data from our partners at StarMine, we named the ten analysts with the best track records in the prior calendar year in each of two areas: accuracy in earnings forecasts and quality of buy, hold and sell recommendations.

As part of our year-end Investment Guide, we checked in with a few honorees in both categories to get their big-picture thinking for 2006 and the stocks they deem attractive now. The ten individuals listed in the accompanying table hail from a diverse group of employers, ranging from financial powerhouses, like Citigroup and Bank of America, to smaller outfits, such as Ferris, Baker Watts.

Overall, the mood is bullish, although there are certainly pockets of caution. Matthew Snowling of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, for example, says he’s wary of the prospects of big money managers in his investment-services coverage area, preferring instead online brokers, like E*Trade Financial. Ivy Zelman, who tracks home builders and makers of household durables for Credit Suisse First Boston, thinks a diversified company like Fortune Brands will be a best bet in a tough housing market.

Full story at Forbes.com

Investing Green Without Seeing Red

Washington, D.C. – Fifteen years ago, Jeffrey Leonard and a partner pulled together $5 million to found a private equity outfit, the Global Environment Fund, devoted to making money off environmentally friendly technologies. “We thought we were going to invest in replacing the internal combustion engine or the incandescent lightbulb,” Leonard says.

At an investment conference here last month, Leonard showed just how far his thinking has evolved since 1990. To an audience of venture capitalists, company executives and government officials, the Global Environment Fund chief rattled off a few of his favorite deal-making areas: liquefied natural gas, clean diesel, nuclear power and clean coal. Hardly stuff to enthuse the average enviro.

Leonard says his remarks came with a measure of tongue-in-cheek but also a serious message on making venture bets in the “clean technology” category. “In this climate,” he warns, “you want to be damn careful about what kind of technology you’re going to invest in.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Using Return On Equity For Stock Bets

WASHINGTON, D.C. – What kind of bang does management deliver for the buck? One way for stock buyers to answer that question is to look at return on equity, or net income divided by shareholder’s equity. The number, expressed as a percentage, can indicate how well management delivers profit given the capital entrusted to them.

Return on equity has its flaws, namely that it sometimes gets a misleading boost from accounting matters rather than management prowess. For example, one-time events, such as the sale of assets, can puff up the net income in ROE’s numerator. Likewise, negative earnings, changes in accounting principles, share buybacks or restructuring charges may distort a company’s net worth.

Full story at Forbes.com

Escape Red Tape

Washington, D.C. – A week ago, the World Bank and its private sector arm, the International Finance Corporation, released “Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs.” The annual survey, now in its third year, sizes up 155 countries to find the best and worst in the world when it comes to regulation on starting a business, hiring and firing workers, getting credit, registering property and other activities essential to free enterprise.

Last November, we argued that data from the World Bank’s report, then titled “Doing Business in 2005,” was a useful starting point in an international stock search. We singled out the five countries, excluding the U.S., that scored above average in all the “Doing Business” criteria. Then we mined our databases for ten reasonably valued, U.S.-listed stocks issued by companies hailing from those countries.

Full story at Forbes.com

Jet-Set Debt

Morningstar analyst Arijit Dutta advises stateside investors not to stray too far from home in their bond portfolio. “You should start with a core bond holding,” he says, “something domestic and investment grade.”

But with more than half the world’s debt issued outside the U.S., there are plenty of ways to wager on overseas fixed income and make good money doing it. The tricky part is figuring out how and where. Forget about buying foreign bonds themselves. Most people can’t cope with the time, taxes and transaction costs involved.

Low-cost bond funds get rid of those problems but don’t solve a big one:allocation. These funds tend to either stay out of the U.S. market altogether or keep a majority of their holdings–usually 60%–overseas. You can tack on one of these to your core domestic portfolio, but how much is too much, especially as global economic conditions shift?

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com

Dialing Up Emerging Markets

Investors who gag on the prices of U.S. telecom stocks but want to stay with the sector should look abroad. “There is still a ton of growth within emerging markets telecom,” says Meagan Morris Nace, equity analyst at DuPont Capital Management.

Nace is one of four analysts focused on emerging markets at DuPont Capital, which oversees $26 billion for its chemical company parent and for outside clients. She points to the opportunities awaiting Russia’s Mobile TeleSystems, the largest mobile phone operator in the former Soviet Union. The $4 billion (2004 sales) company does most of its business in Russia, where, Nace says, barely half the population has wireless service. She expects that three-quarters will have it within three years. The company also controls half the Ukrainian market, the next largest in the region, where wireless penetration is only 34%.

Full story (reg. required) at Forbes.com