Turning Around The Merchant Marine

WASHINGTON – If a nation’s preeminence is measured by the size of its maritime shipping industry, then the United States is in decline. Consider: Since 1991, America’s merchant fleet has dropped to 260 ships from 536, according to the American Maritime Congress, the industry group representing ocean carriers. Just 4% of U.S. trade is carried on U.S.-flagged vessels.

For Charles G. Raymond, chief executive of Charlotte, N.C.-based ocean shipper Horizon Lines, that’s evidence that the government needs to do more for the industry. “Clearly, there’s a need for a government focus on this,” he says, adding that “there should be a high-level, blue ribbon committee that looks into what can be done and the key drivers to make it happen in a socially and fiscally responsible way.”

And in a way, of course, that helps Raymond’s company. Horizon Lines, which CSX sold in February to Washington buyout firm The Carlyle Group for $300 million, is one of America’s biggest ocean haulers, moving freight on 17 ships between the continental U.S. and Alaska, Guam, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

But Raymond and others in maritime transportation insist the matter goes well beyond their own self interest. On its Web site, the American Maritime Congress points out that 95% of military cargo must travel by sea during wartime. Raymond, who started his career as a deck officer for Sea-Land in 1965, recalls scrambling to retrofit two Sea-Land ships to haul ammunition when Japanese and Danish sailors suddenly refused to carry America’s military supplies during the first Gulf War.

“When you have to sustain the surge of material going into a war zone,” he says, “you find guys have gotten hurt, or they’ve been out at sea for 75 days and they’ve got family issues and need to be replaced. That’s where we run into trouble as a nation, coming up with enough mariners to keep those vessels manned on a sustained basis.”

Full story at Forbes.com

The Battle To Secure The Supply Chain

WASHINGTON, D.C. – When Congress passed the USA Patriot Act two years ago, it acted swiftly and broadly. The 342-page bill, which President George W. Bush signed into law on Oct. 26, 2001, modified 15 statutes, authorized hundreds of millions of dollars in new spending, and expanded the government’s powers in the realms of surveillance, criminal justice, immigration, intelligence and trade sanctions, among other areas.

The process couldn’t have been more different when it came to beefing up security for businesses shipping goods into and out of the country. Rather than going for heavy-handed legislation or rule-making, the government approached companies involved in shipping and brainstormed with them to develop a largely voluntary, self-regulating system of securing the supply chain.

The shipping community continues to debate the success of the foremost result of this brainstorming, a program known as the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism, or C-TPAT, run by U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection.

Here’s how C-TPAT works: Businesses–carriers, customs brokers, freight forwarders, importers and anyone else involved with shipping or logistics–sign a memorandum to get the C-TPAT process started. The next step is to conduct a self-assessment of supply chain security using C-TPAT guidelines on physical security, manifest procedures, education and training, and other topics. C-TPAT participants then submit a security questionnaire and profile to customs, develop a program and agree to future audits of security practices to check whether progress is taking place.

For the companies involved, the carrot part of the equation is a reduced number of inspections at borders, access to a list of other C-TPAT members, and an “assigned account manager” at the Customs bureau.

In terms of numbers, C-TPAT certainly seems to have been a hit. As of today, from a core group of “charter members” such as Motorola, Ford Motor, and Target , C-TPAT has 4,300 companies signed up. “[That number] indicates that because of C-TPAT,” Customs Commissioner Robert C. Bonner testified in Congress recently, “trade is a lot safer from terrorist exploitation.”

Full story at Forbes.com

Congress Still Loves Trains

WASHINGTON – It’s not buggy whip time yet, but America’s railroad supply industry has sure seen better days. Thomas D. Simpson, executive director of the Railway Supply Institute’s Washington office, reports that only 17,700 freight railcars were ordered last year, down from 70,000 to 80,000 in the late 1990s. Meanwhile, locomotive sales have dropped to just 400 per year from 1,200. “It’s been a tough slog,” he sighs.

But happily for rail suppliers, Congress still loves trains. Several proposals for revamping the nation’s rail infrastructure are now chugging around the House and Senate. And RSI, whose members range from industrial giants like General Electric and ITT Industries to smaller rail equipment manufacturers such as Greenbrier and Wabtec, is trying to make sure one of those proposals becomes law.

“There’s some hard work in front of us,” says Simpson, “but we can get something, and getting something is key.”

Atop the RSI’s legislative wish list is to have Congress establish a “Rail Finance and Development Corporation,” modeled on government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With a chief executive and a presidentially appointed board of directors, the entity would be authorized to issue $50 billion in federal tax credit bonds to states and private/public partnerships to finance rail projects. (Holders of these bonds get a tax credit, which provides an indirect federal subsidy for rail.)

Full story at Forbes.com

Freight Stocks: Riding The Rebound

WASHINGTON – With fuel prices stabilizing and manufacturing showing signs of recovery, transportation and freight companies have attracted investors. Since a mid-March low, transportation stocks in the S&P 500 have nearly kept pace with the 24% rise in the overall index.

So are there bargains left among the transports? We scanned the Multex database and found a few stocks that still look reasonable. Our criteria: price-to-sales and price-to-book multiples below five-year averages; latest 12-month sales of $400 million or greater; three-year revenue growth (annualized) in positive territory; and estimated annual earnings growth of 10% or better over the next three to five years.

Our screens snared a few passenger airlines, but we left out those more speculative bets in favor of air freight couriers, railroads and truckers. John Escario, manager of the Rydex Transportation Fund, thinks the latter group is particularly well-poised to benefit from an eventual economic recovery. “They’ve had to go through a lot of pain,” he says, noting that some 7,000 trucking outfits have gone bust since 2001. Result: less capacity, steadier prices and better cost control for the survivors.

Full story at Forbes.com

Freights Connect The Dots In Highway Bill

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In mid-May, Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta pulled the wraps off the Bush Administration’s proposal for a six-year, $247 billion highway and transportation bill. The reaction from the road building lobby? Disappointment. But the freight and shipping industry had few complaints.

“We’re pretty happy about it,” says Joanne Casey, president of the Intermodal Association of North America, a group representing railroads, water carriers, ports, truckers and other freight outfits. “It’s a good starting point.”

The administration’s proposal is called the Safe, Accountable, Flexible and Efficient Transportation Equity Act of 2003, or SAFETEA. It addresses the reauthorization of the current law, known as the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), set to expire at the end of September.

So why does the cargo crowd like SAFETEA? Several provisions in the bill zero in on the issue of intermodal shipping, or the seamless movement of containers from boats to trains to trucks. Most important, SAFETEA establishes dedicated funding to build out the so-called intermodal connectors, or roads that link the ports, airports and rail and truck terminals to inland interstates and highways. It also would make tax-exempt bonds available for freight projects and free up credit for private rail infrastructure investment under the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act, or TIFIA.

The freight lobby has been pushing for such provisions for years. Its primary argument: America faces a freight capacity crisis. That may be a hard one to believe these days, what with the nation’s manufacturing capacity at 20-year lows.

Full story at Forbes.com

The Caterpillar Steamroller

WASHINGTON – The road and transportation industry is already rolling its heavy equipment into town to lobby for the reauthorization of the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which is set to expire this September.

The law authorizes the U.S. federal government’s 45% share–now $38.8 billion a year–of all capital spending on highways and mass transit. But the industry wants more.

Some background: When the transportation act, known as TEA-21, was enacted in 1998, it tied spending levels to revenue collected by the government from highway user fees (various taxes on fuels, tires and so on) and credited to the highway account of the Highway Trust Fund. At the time, this was considered a victory for the highway lobby, since Congress had been allowing unspent money to accumulate in the Trust Fund to make the federal budget deficit look smaller. After TEA-21, the federal government spent what it collected.

But in 1999, just a year after TEA-21 went into effect, the American Road and Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA) began preparing for their next offensive. Those preparations have gotten intense. Last week, ARTBA, along with the Associated General Contractors of America, held a legislative “fly-in”: 500 people signed up, representing 28 construction and building associations and union groups.

Fanning out on Capitol Hill, those groups carried the standard of one of ARTBA’s primary goals: to move TEA-21 from a receipts-driven, “revenue in/spending out” setup toward more of a needs-driven approach. What that means is the road builders want spending determined by various assessments from the Department of Transportation and others of what’s needed to maintain and improve the transportation infrastructure in the U.S. If receipts coming into the Highway Trust Fund fall short of those needs, the lobby argues Congress should close the gap.

Highway and transit builders have a strong reason to want to focus on needs rather than receipts. Starting in 2002, receipts from user fees began to drop significantly, thanks largely to the impact of a slower economy and increased sales of gasahol, an Ethanol-based fuel that isn’t taxed for the Highway Trust Fund and is heavily subsidized–thanks to the farm lobby and the efforts of Archer Daniels Midland.

Full story at Forbes.com

Transportation Transformation

Ever taken the train from Atlanta to Birmingham? It’s a pokey affair. The train, part of Amtrak’s New York to New Orleans run, makes the Atlanta-Birmingham trip in a leisurely three hours. Driving the 150 miles between the two cities takes half an hour less.

In the U.S., such a situation is typical when it comes to traveling by rail. But the era of the slow train could be nearing its end. Spurred on by frustrated business leaders, state governments around the country are developing big-ticket plans for high-speed rail, and Congress looks likely to play ball.

Take the Southeast, for example. The chambers of commerce from no less than 14 Southern cities have banded together in a coalition known as the Southeastern Economic Alliance (SEA). The group, whose leaders include top executives from the likes of Bowater and Bank of America, has proposed a plan to upgrade freight lines and build new tracks to form a network of reasonably fast passenger trains (ones that would travel at 85 mph). With the improvements, that ride from Atlanta to Birmingham would shrink from three hours to under two.

Why such interest in rail? For one, Southerners drive more miles than anyone else in the U.S., and traffic congestion in Southeastern cities is expected to increase 400% from now until 2020. Air travel, too, has its share of problems. Last year, a quarter of all flights in the Southeast were delayed.

“Our population growth continues to be very strong,” says Charles T. Hill, a co-chair of the SEA and a Richmond, Va.-based executive vice president of Atlanta’s SunTrust Bank. “We’ll end up with a bottleneck if we’re not careful.”

In its literature, SEA underscores a new “business approach” to developing rail travel. For example, the alliance advocates getting rid of the long-haul rides that Amtrak now loses so much money on. Instead, the SEA plan would connect cities within 300 miles of each other, an idea that squares with expert thinking on the subject.

“Rail can play a role as a short- and medium-distance carrier,” says Hank Dittmar, co-director of Reconnecting America, a transportation policy think tank.

Full story at Forbes.com

Throwing Their Freight Around

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Despite a punk economy, things don’t look so bad for the railroads these days. Though down for the past 12 months, rail stocks in the S&P 500 have beaten the broader index’s performance by 16%. Look back two years, and that spread widens to 59%.

So what’s to like? For one, industrywide financials seem fairly steady. Value Line estimates that revenue will increase 3% by the end of 2003, while net margins, or net income as a percentage of sales, will increase to 9.5%. That’s up an impressive two and a half points since 1998.

Another plus is this: Big rail has an unusually powerful position in Washington. Vice President Dick Cheney sat on the board of directors at Union Pacific until he took office. New Treasury Secretary John W. Snow was the chief executive at CSX. Nor does the industry simply rely on the Administration’s railroad men. In November, for example, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) tapped Republican Bud Shuster, the former chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and a 28-year congressman from Pennsylvania, to lobby for it on transportation and tax issues.

Big rail has shown little hesitation to open its wallet, mostly to Republicans. By the Center for Responsive Politics’ tally, rail companies ponied up $4.3 million during the 2002 election cycle. Union Pacific topped the list of contributors with $1.7 million, 84% of which went to Republicans.

The big carriers’ lobbying machine exists, among other reasons, to protect the regulatory status quo. Visit Union Pacific’s Web site, for example, and you’ll find a position paper from the company on the Staggers Rail Act and the deregulation it brought to the railroads in 1981. After trotting out a raft of statistics on improving safety and productivity, the paper then warns that “these gains are threatened by legislation sought by some special interest groups that would impose new regulatory burdens on railroads.”

So who are these special interests? Primarily disgruntled customers in the energy, commodities and chemical industries. Banded together in groups such as Alliance for Rail Competition (ARC) and Consumers United for Rail Equity, they pull out their own statistics to argue that freight carriers have effectively acquired monopoly control, leaving many customers “captive” to a single railroad. By their figuring, $11 billion worth of freight each year is shipped by such captive customers.

Full story at Forbes.com

Steel Wheels

A transportation analyst with J.P. Morgan Chase, Jill Evans follows weekly railcar loadings. Lately, she likes what she sees. “Metal shipments were up by double digits in the past three weeks,” she says, “That hasn’t happened in years.”

Evans suggests this uptick in activity bodes well for railroads, as increased shipments will dovetail nicely with the railroads’ efforts to improve pricing. The rails will also benefit, says Evans, from the productivity gains resulting from the heavy merger activity of the late ’90s.

Better still, costs related to those mergers, such as spending on new terminals and connecting lines, have eased off. “The huge swing from negative to positive cash flow is coming back to the shareholders in the form of debt reduction and share buyback programs,” Evans explains.

Signs of an economic rebound have kept investors interested in rail companies since last summer. Over the past 12 months, railroad stocks in the S&P 500 have gained 2%, versus a drop of 25% for the overall index.

Full story at Forbes.com

Stock Focus: Freight Companies

NEW YORK – The news has been awful for freight carriers.

“Our surveys show there’s been no moderation in the decline in demand for freight or trucking activity,” says Jason Trennert, managing director and economist at International Strategy and Investment, a New York-based brokerage firm specializing in economic research. Though the S&P transportation industry index has made a bit of a recovery, it is still off 7% from its high in early February.

While hardly bullish, ISI’s Trennert acknowledges that trucking companies and freight stocks tend to be “early cycle performers.” Jill Evans, senior transportation analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase, also sees hope for an early rebound. “Historically, these stocks have had a high correlation to movements by the Fed,” she says, adding that the Federal Reserve’s recent lowering of short-term rates has been “fairly aggressive relative to historical measures.”

According to Evans, rail companies in particular have advantages in the current economic climate because of their coal-shipping business. Of the U.S. rails she covers, Evans recommends Omaha-based Union Pacific (nyse: UNP – news – people), whose tracks cover 23 states in the Midwest and western United States. In 2000, energy-related freight represented one-fifth of the Union Pacific Railroad’s revenue. The company also owns Overnite Transportation, a less-than-truckload carrier.

Full story at Forbes.com